Are we in the capacity to bear the taxations of a new civil war?

Any answer to such a question should start by enumerating the major factors constituting the taxations resulting from being entrained into a civil war ??La Samaha Allah!?

1. Economy, 2. Social System, 3. Military Situation of Lebanon, 4. Regional Influences 1. Economy

Our huge debts resulting from past civil wars and the reconstruction of the country
Infrastructures are a major barrier to prevent any such inside adventure and more specifically towards any outside frontiers of Lebanon?s.
Lebanon came out of the 15 years of civil war tired economically and socially. The main result was a debt of many billions of dollars that burdens its people and government as well as neighboring friends. Some people in the opposition deem that the debt was because on insane financial management of reconstruction.
Well, I think that this is not the complete answer, since the main mistake undertaken by the Office of the late President Rafik Al Hariri ?God Bless His Soul? when he took the leadership of the Lebanese Government in 1992, is to call a Private Account Firm to undertake the study of the Finances of Lebanon following the 15 years of war. Such a study might have allowed the assessment of the war debts whose responsible was the preceding governments during the war.

In Quebec, when the Charest Liberal Government came to power following eight years of Pequists Sovereign Government, the Prime Minister asked for a study on the financial health of the Government before taking office.

In the case of Lebanon, I don?t know if this was done! Otherwise if yes, then this huge incurring debt could be the result of war and not only reconstruction. Any how, our country is financially inapt to adventure in any war what so ever, whether inside or outside from the country.

One of the reasons behind the probable missing of a financial health evaluation of the Lebanese finances right at the end of the 15 years of civil wars, might be because of the Saudi Arab like mentality of the late President Hariri, characterized by simplicity which is termed in Arabic: “Bedouin Fit rah”.
This characteristic made him probably confident in peoples on the Lebanese scene for few years, to discover after that this is not so. The consequences were surely causing this bleeding of his noise. Probably, this is why he used to turn his head backward while hearing Mr.Nabih Berry commenting in the Parliament. This turn of the head was to clot blood.

A similar situation occurred in his meeting with the late Ghazi Kanaan, Syrian Minister of Interior in the office of the latter, following the threat raised against him by the actual President Assad of Syria.

2. Social System

Lebanon?s social system post the civil war became decentralized into a multitude of Christians and Moslems torn apart areas.
It is still weak in its binding capacities and powers, although 14th of March has succeeded in bridging some huge gaps in the social structure, following the Cedars Revolution.
Consequently, the possibility of incursion into a civil war is weak from the Entropic nature of the social system which is stable when considered by itself, aside from economic or military outside influences.

This natural stable social situation is however offset, whenever outside factors interfere to disrupt the equilibrium in the system thermodynamics, towards another one with an increase in entropy. Such outside sources may result from foreign interferences resulting in second order equations as was the situation following the Hezbollah-Israel war of 2006 which disrupted the social calm to result in Destruction, Poverty and Exodus from the South of Lebanon towards the Central Regions.

3. Military Situation of Lebanon

Lebanon?s military situation post the civil war of 1975-90 is still unbalanced Government Wise versus Private Militias Groups whose main powers originates from outside regional sources far from being controlled by the Government of this country.
The Lebanese army is fit to secure this country from up rises. Lebanon has never needed a Napoleon style of army to stand against it?s many enemies, since it?s strong diplomacy and especially that of the late President Hariri, was enough to save this country from the diabolic envies of it?s enemies.
This was always the situation with Lebanon even before the occurrence of the
Lebanese-Palestinian war and then the Civil War. In that period, this country was fit with politicians like Sheikh Pierre Gemayel who used to affirm that Lebanon?s strength resides in his weakness, which is to mean that the weak military strength of Lebanon is offset with the strong diplomacy of its people.
In that respect, this country?s politics was undertaken by the Lebanese Front during the war headed by the late Camille Chamoun in particular.
The situation before the occurrence of the Civil War of 1975 was different since the independence of this country.
Apart from the short social unrests of 1958, Lebanon was secured with his diplomacy until the day he accepted to sign the Cairo agreement in 1969 which marked the start of inside then foreign troubles on its soils.

To return to the actual Military Situation, we hear from responsible people here and there in 14th of March concerning the disarming of the militias especially that of Hezbollah.
The country went into private roundtable of talks during the past and actual government.
We hear people of 14th march affirming in public that they are against the weapons in the hands of Hezbollah who are very strong financially and militarily.
I wonder why some deputies don?t make a project of law in the Parliament concerning this matter, and then they submit it for study, discussion and then approval in the Chamber of Deputies? In all the countries of the world this the way democracy is carried.
If there are barriers by some sides, the Government can bring consequently the conclusions of this to Foreign Arabic or Western countries through their embassies to be persuaded of the barriers to the legal flow of Democracy!
Most of the time, we hear on TV from such and such deputy who represents only his
30 000 electors that he is or against such a matter! It is not the TV the place to show up but rather the Parliament!
Any one that struggle to this in the Parliament only, and if he dies for that sake, is considered the true Martyr.

4. Regional Influences

This factor of Foreign Regional Influences is primordial in Lebanese Internal Affairs unfortunately.
The reason lies behind its weak social and confessional superstructure in addition to the severe economic problems and outside menaces that preclude the resort to foreign financial help paid through resort to foreign influences.
This country follows a trade like politics with regional forces originating from different regional axes.
It?s southern and eastern frontiers are badly safe guarded by its Government to the extent that UN forces supervise closely the situation in the south. The eastern and northern frontiers with Syria are under the misfit of mafias and weapon dealers.

Lebanon, although highly dense in population and well fitted with infrastructures, is a folkloric type of country which can prosper if left alone. It can offer wealthy plot scenarios to foreign powers if it is unable to resist this, or tempted to do so, because of corruption as usual, consequence to its weak economy.
Therefore, this factor is the biggest taxes to pay by this country, and we are unfortunately unable to control it because of the dispersed Arab powers, the insufficiency of World powers like the United States of America and France, who are presently kneeling to a big worldwide Credit Crisis.

The actual war on Gaza and the disastrous resulting Genocide to the Palestinian People influenced tremendously my personal position towards Syria.
This country, by harboring Khaled Mashaal of Hamas and supporting Hezbollah of Lebanon is becoming the threat to Peace in this region.
In addition, although Israel is a tough to deal with as a country and power, nevertheless the 2006 and 2009 war against it is the signs of the Holocaust desire towards the Jews as people. I my self Am against any type of extermination whether to Lebanese, Christians, Shiaa, Sunnis, Jews.

It is becoming apparent to me that the Ba?ath of Syria is nearer to the Ba?ath of the Assur Medieval Kingdom of the Bible, rather than to the Arabic-Socialist Ba?ath or Arab Renaissance.

According to me, the war of Gaza was a real Political Scandal from Biblical perspective as well as actual Zionist one.

Regards,

Hassan El-Saghir, PE; M.Eng (Env)

Montreal, 2009

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