El-Saghir: System Politics: A Mathematical Approach To The Peace Process In The Middle East

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The Codex Leningradensis the oldest complete Bible a codex of the Tiberian mesorah that has survived intact to this day, it was written in 1010 C.E., In the cover page?appears a?design?with the Star of David and The Arabic Star.????Is this a coincidence or something hidden behind? This symmetry of both plans?vertically and?horizontally reflects the Cross. If we go back to the oldest Egyptian sign, the ?Ankh? a?symbol of eternal life, the geometry looks like a Cross. May this?mathematical approach to resolve Middle East?civilizations’ conflicts interest Hollywood Producers such as Mario Kassar? May Stephen Spielberg?shoots a fantastic and historical movie about this arabic nationalism and zionism relic. May this approach?will overthrow Hary Poter? El-Saghir by his way, gave us a mathematical approach of civilizations and related conflicts?

By Hassan El-Saghir, P.Eng.(Env.) Email??

The Middle Eastern area as a whole, has been the scene of various civilizations since ancient times and remains a boiling zone on the world map. This part of the world was being narrated by old books as the Holy Bible and Qu?uran or through the works of historians as Josephus, Philo, Al Massoudi, Al Razi or others. In what follows, I am going to discuss about the systemic approach to politics in the Middle East. This short essay results from my personal reflections and observations of the Middle Eastern socio-political situation since the year 1967 till present.??

I am going to expose a brief review of two important doctrines that shaped the Middle Eastern scene since the end of the nineteen century and the beginning of the twentieth century which are, Arab Nationalism and Zionism.?

Arab Nationalism??

The Arab Nationalism as a movement in the Middle Eastern countries and especially the Arabic ones represents till our days the principal motor motivating the behavior of mass populations, thinkers and politicians.It is still the main geo political issue, especially for those countries neighboring the current state of Israel which used to be known as Palestine.??The Arab nationalism as an ideology was not born in the Middle East, but rather than in the western part of Europe, being a consequence of what was known as European nationalism in those countries as France and Germany as was exposed in the book on Arab nationalism by Bassam Tibi. European nationalism resulted from the export from France and the propagation in Western European countries of the symbol of the French revolution of ?Liberty, Equality and Fraternity? by Napoleon Bonaparte during his conquests to countries overlooking the Danube river such as Austria and Italy.?

The Arab Nationalism appeared in the Middle East at the end of the 19th. century at a time when the Ottoman Empire was struggling for survival while the Western European countries were starting to become powerful because of the industrial revolution. Since the Ottomans where ruling the middle east countries with a hand of iron over four centuries since the collapse of the Arabic Khalifat in Baghdad, this idea of Arabic Nationalism found it?s way in those countries thanks to the efforts of Arabic elites, thinkers and because of the encouragement of some Western European countries and mainly Great Britain, Germany, Italy and France. The reason for that is, the know how in advance about the fate of the Ottoman Empire and hence the search of the possible future successor. At the same time, the fate of the Diaspora Jews in Europe and mainly following the Dreyfus affair enhanced the thinking of reshaping of the Middle East that was governed by the Ottoman Empire. Therefore, this ideology of Arab Nationalism was profitable to all parties on the political scene at that time except of course, the Turks. Arab Nationalism didn?t have a solid school of thinking to motivate its development in the Middle Eastern countries as compared to Islam Fundamentalism whose cause strives on rigorous dogmas of ancient philosophers as Ibn Hanbal and his follower Ibn Taymennah, and Moslem hadiths formulated by AL Bukhari or Moslem Imams as Ibn Hanbal, Abou Hanifah, Maleki or Shafieeh who where the founders of Sunni sects and dogmas.?Those four imams explained the Holy Qu?uran each on his way from the most rigid Ibn Hanbal, to the less rigorous Al Maliki. Nevertheless, Arab nationalism has found its popularity among people masses because of the brilliant Arab heritage, thank?s to the works of philosophers as Ibn Khaldoun, Ibn Rushd or medical doctors as Ibn Sinaa. Another important attribute that favored the development of this political movement, was a psychological emotional feeling commonly known and elucidated by the Syrian thinker Al-Adham as ?Al Asabiah Al Arabia? that tied the Arabic people from the extreme gulf region in the east, to the extreme Atlantic Ocean region in the west Arab world. This common feeling arises mostly during war time and as a consequence to the attack by a major common enemy.?

Examples were, following the declaration of the state of Israel and the subsequent expulsion of the Palestinians, the first six days Arab Israeli war of 1967, the second Arab Israeli war of 1973, the desert storm against Irak in 1990 and now a days the Iraqi war, Palestinian up risings and at last, the Lebanese war or Israel Hezbollah conflict. Religion however, didn?t play a fundamental role as Arabism i.e. being an Arab in those Middle Eastern countries apart from minor clashes between Christianity and Islam. Both communities contributed to the development of the Arab world and both were absorbed by the main Arab nationalistic current.?Even, both furnished political Arab thinkers as Michel Aflak and Sati Housari. As to the political leaders of the Arabic countries since World War II, and following the abolishment of some Royal Monarchies particularly in Egypt, Irak and Libya or following the independence of those countries as Syria and Algeria, then Moslem fundamentalism was not tolerated and some times oppressed using government force.??

Zionism??

Zionism as an ideology started in Switzerland as a movement created by Theodore Hertzel at the end of the 19th.century.The first idea mentioning the need to establish an eternal state for the dispersed Jews all over the world appeared in a thin booklet entitled the Jewish State by Dr. Hertzel.?

This short manifesto was warmly acclaimed by all Jews in the Diaspora in 1898 in the city of BAL in Switzerland, but was not so much put in effect and, stayed as a document on the shelf. It was not until the Jewish Holocaust during World War II, that the idea of founding a state for the Jews that became serious. Before that, and since the end of the 19th century till 1948, there have been some artisan methods to locate Jews in Palestine and in most cases all ended with a disaster.?Zionism that started in Germany and was declared in Switzerland was founded irrespective of the possible localization of the Jewish state whether in Palestine or elsewhere. In addition, as a theory it is not related by no means to Arab formalism or thinking and in particular to Arab Nationalism. Nor was Zionism based on social contract philosophy of Jean Jacques Rousseau or other European philosophers. The rise and propagation of both currents i.e. Arab Nationalism and Zionism in Europe and the Middle East during the same time happened by mere chance, with some blessings from European governments.?

Zionism as a theory and thinking elucidated by Theodore Hartzel in the short pamphlet ?The Jewish State? proposes the founding of a Jewish state to rest on three poles which are Jewish Religion, Jewish Culture and Entrepreneurship. Those three foundation poles enable the Jewish state to be stable and last longer than the preceding Israel state founded by King David based on the commandments of the Torah received by Moses more than three thousand years ago. It is not the object of this paper to detail the Jewish history in antiquity, nor the Arabic one since the coming of the prophet Mohammad.??

Fundamentalism?

Fundamentalism appears in all three religions: Judaism, Christianity and Islam. In each one, he takes different form, from the ulta-orthodoxe and mystic Judaism to the moderateChristianity, to end with the extreme Moslem integrism that finishes with either exclusion from society as the case of Takfir Wal Hijrah in Egypt in the late seventies, or the public appearance in the form of terror wether social, psychological or physical as is the case of, Hamas in Gaza from the beginning nineties till now, Taliban in Afghanistan from end of the eighties till 2002, Al Qaida in Irak from 2003 till present. The Shia?a sect also went through fundamentalism culminating with the Iranian revolution in 1979 to establish of the Islamic Republic of Iran, nourishing it?s partisans in Irak as Jaishu Al Mahdi or in Lebanon as the Hezbollah.? Christian fundamentalism didn?t play an extensive role in the Arab countries, aside from few clashes in Egypt and, the long and bitter civil war in Lebanon from 1975 till 1990 that ended with the Taef agreement in Saudi Arabia. The Lebanese war however, doesn?t represent the true clash of Moslem-Christian fundamentalism which is one of its multiple facets. The others are Lebanon-Palestinian war, Israeli-Palestinian war and the Syrian occupation of the whole country that ended in may 2005 following the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri.?Quantitative Analysis and Exposition of Zionism??

Since the foundation of the Jewish state is on three poles, the area delineated by these three points in common Euclidian geometry is a triangle. For the sake of simplicity, we shall assume it to be equilateral i.e. all sides equal with no distorted lengths. If we rotate clockwise by 180 degrees around the centroid such a triangle and superpose the original triangle on the new one, we get the star of David as a geometric figure. I am sure that many people have seen this star on the Israeli flag or on Jewish armories.?

Each apex shall bear one attribute i.e. either Jewish religion or Jewish culture or Entrepreneurship. In consequence, the weight of the Jewish state will be equally divided to 33.33% on each apex by simple statics assuming a 100% load on the centroid of the Jewish state triangle. A scheme as such, will be in equilibrium against any event that tends to flip over the state of Israel whether from inside perturbations and to a lesser extent from the outside forces.??

In the same manner, such a scheme can be subjected to boundary conditions as in mathematics. For instance, the movement of the full 100% loads from the centroid towards one apex as for example entrepreneurship, results in the weakening of the two other poles or one of them such as Jewish religion resulting in a state of Israel becoming materialistic and less spiritual or religious. This brings corruption, failure of family ties, and abandon of god and hence the Torah and the appearance of the Jewish state as a common and ordinary European or American country or even any Middle Eastern one. On the long run, this may result in the collapse of the whole Jewish State.??

In the same way, if the full 100% load move from the centroid and towards the Jewish religion apex, this results in the weakening of the other two or one of them such as entrepreneurship, resulting in a situation similar to the state of Israel post King David and Solomon era, i.e. two kingdoms weakening and disappearing in time, since they rest only on religion similar to a one legged chair!??At last, if the full 100% load from the centroid move towards the Jewish culture apex and away from the other two, this will result in a Jewish state which is devoted entirely to artists, painters, thinkers, philosophers, historians, politicians? Such a state would find it self with a weak infrastructure, distorted Jewish religion at the mercy of many different currents of thoughts, vulnerable to any outside attack and unstable inside. Consequence to this systemic analysis, Zionism as proposed by Dr. Hertzel appears to be the best solution to the Jewish State on the short and long run, inside to the state of Israel and outside to it as will be demonstrated latter when we approach systematically the Arab Nationalism movement.????

Quantitative Analysis and Exposition of Arab Nationalism??

Since Arab Nationalism doesn?t rest on solid theory but more on methods of governing and hence on operation, the quantitative analysis will be deficient in some parameters due to the lack of rigidity. Nevertheless, and in the absence of a coherent theory or manifesto, i will show what would be the best model to use to describe such a system based on common factors in these Arab countries that contributed to the evolution and development of the Arab world. Arab nationalism rose in the Middle East to its maximum strength to confront the powerful French and British imperialism in those Arabic countries post World War II.??

It brought about the abolishment of some royal regiments like those in Egypt, Irak or Libya. In other cases, it shifted the republican feudal authorities as the cases of Syria, Algeria or Yemen. However, some monarchies continued to strive in the Middle Eastas the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Arab Emirates, Kingdom of Jordan and others. In this paper, we are going to analyze mainly the situation in those countries of the near east adjacent to the occupied Palestinian territories and Israel. Egypt is an Arab state that saw mostly the rise in power of the Nasser?s movement as an Arabic Nationalism that affected its socio economic life for many years.??

In addition, undamentalist organizations like Jamaa Islamia are strong and well organized in this country. Moslems brothers were being fighted in a harsh manner by Jamal Abdel Nasser and and his party. Many brothers were either jailed or eliminated. Hence, there was a type of war and antagonism between those two big currents: Arab nationalism and Moslem fundamentalism. Arab nationalism in Egypt was able to unify the Christian Copts and Moslem Sunni majority by proper balance of power and distribution of wealth and authorities on all work class groups in Egypt. Arab nationalism in Syria reached its maximal strength and stability when the Baath party took the power in Syria under the late President Hafez Assad.??

Again, this party encompassed most of the religious groups i.e. Sunni Moslems, Christians and the Moslem Alouite minority who were the ruling class of Syria for many years. Although there has been a hard Baath government oppression of Moslem brother?s rebellion in the city of Hamah in the beginning of the eighties, the three main religions continued to live in peace and prosperity in that country under the baath dictatorship. Hence, that country like Egypt has shown tension and consequently clashes between Arab nationalism and Moslem fundamentalism.??

The case of Lebanon from it?s independence from France showed an exception among the others Arabian republics till the rise of the fifteen years long civil war. Before the civil war, Lebanon was considered a peace full country and among the few democracies of the Middle East. In this country, Arab nationalism was not a strong current. Lebanon was being governed by Moslem and Christian leaders through verbal agreements and by laws. Among these leaders, a strong progressist movement led by the late Kamal Jumbalatt appeared at the end of the sixties, because of anomalies in the methods of public administration, as well as intrusion of some Arab regimes and mainly Egypt of Nasser in the internal affairs of that country.??An example, the Cairo agreement in 1969 that forced the Lebanese government to autorise the Palestinian Liberation Organization or PLO to launch attacks from the south of Lebanon on the Jewish State who was in peace with lebanon since 1948. The expulsion of the PLO from Jordan in 1970 and the subsequent arrival of many Palestinians as refugees to that country was a main cause of friction between the PLO and the Lebanese army backed by right wing militias over the years 1974 till the expulsion of the Palestinian guerillas by Israel in 1982. After 1982 and following the withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon, a new shiaa movement by the name of Hezbollah appeared in Lebanon and supported by Iran and latter by both Syria and Iran.????

Arab nationalism through the Syrian support of the Lebanese baath party and other left wing parties started to strengthen in Lebanon during the civil war and on, following the Taef agreement that ended the fifteen years war in Lebanon. Arab nationalism in the Palestinian occupied territories as well as among Palestinian refugees in Syria, Egypt and Lebanon was mostly prevailing among the Fatah group of Yasser Arafat. Other fractions making the PLO were the democratic and popular fronts having communist tendencies. The Hamas and Islamic Jihad fundamentalist groups appeared in the late eighties following the weakening of the Fattah group after the PLO defeat in Lebanon and the expulsion of Arafat and his guerillas to Tunisia.??As we may have seen lately in 2007 and well before that, there has been tension between the Fattah or Arab nationalists and Hamas or Moslem fundamentalists. In many cases, this resulted in clashes and blood sheds between the two. The Kingdom of Jordan remained a stable monarchy and has lost the Palestinian West bank to Israel following the six days war of 1967. Syria lost the Golan Heights and Egypt the Sinai and Gaza. Nevertheless, Jordan has seen some minor Arab nationalistic and Moslem fundamentalist groups ascension on power among the Jordanian population.??As was seen before, Zionism presented three foundation poles matching the apexes of an equilateral triangle. The following question arises. Can we have a similar pattern in Arab nationalism i.e. a geometric figure with apexes as its foundations? Well, this could be a solution, but no Arab manifesto to date has exposed that, contrary to the Zionist case. Any attempt should be taken with precaution since as we mentioned before, the Zionist movement arose irrespective of the Arabic situation in the Middle East. Therefore, the Hertzel theory cannot be applied to other than the Jewish state.??

In addition, it appears non sence to apply a Jewish model or any other one to the Arabic situation in order to come up with a model since, the Arabic case is different in addition to that we can be faced from critics from the Arabs. However, it is worth to try. Let us consider Arab nationalism to have four foundations: Arabic economic development, Religion, Arabic culture and heritage, Arabism or Arabic assabiyah i.e. feeling to be an Arab.??Those four attributes constitute the apexes of a square rather than a rectangle to simplify the analysis. If we rotate clockwise such a square by 45 degrees and superpose the original square over it?s rotation figure, we will get an eight apex star which many of us have seen on mosques walls as decoration or on walls of Arabian palaces or on other Arabian artistic commodities or in literatures.??

What a coincidence with the six apex star of Zionism! Another question is why we chose four attributes in the Arabic case since Arabism or Arabic assabiyah could be deleted because it appears as a redundant. The answer comes from the Jewish case since the third attribute of Jewish culture invented by Hertzel was a redundant in which Hertzel selected a bad choice not quite necessary compared to entrepreneurship and Judaism as was exposed in the book on the Jewish State by Yoram Hazony. In consequence, the omitting of Jewish culture from the Zionist model leaves us with a figure with no geometry as a line segment between Judaism and entrepreneurship compared to the triangle of Judaism, entrepreneurship and Jewish culture. Consequently, the redundant attribute of Assabiya Arabia or Arabism finds it?s legitimacy in the Arab nationalism model. The same analysis on the stability of the Arabian square can be deduced from the one formerly exposed on the stability of the Zionist triangle but with some modifications.??If the 100% load is applied on the centroid of the square, then each apex receives a mass of 25%. In the case of a distortion as for the full load moving towards the Arabic economic development and far from the others, then an Arabic country finds it?s self a material like society resulting in corruption, unbalanced distribution of wealth that results in social uprising as is the case in Syria, occupied Palestinian territories, Egypt, Lebanon, etc???

All of them are facing the up rising of Moslem integrism and other fractions of the society. If the centroid is shifted towards the religion apex, then we reach a case whereby such a country is concentrating it?s wealth on religious matters and is expected to fall in underdevelopment as was the case of the Arabic countries before their golden ages under the Abbasid ruling i.e. during the Omayad khalifat ruling or during the modern Ottoman domination. I will leave to the reader to think and deduce the consequences of having the centroid moves towards the Arabism or Arabic culture apex.??At last, those two geometric models become more realistic when we find a third case model as for instance, a pentagon or hexagon which when rotated, will generate a ten apex or twelve apexes star that characterizes some ethnic group or characteristic in the world. A viable but incomplete model is the French hexagon that symbolizes the Gaulien and Latin Kingdom of France. Till know, I have not seen any twelve apex star to characterize French culture in France historical books or sculptures or museums! If any reader has come on such twelve apex star in the ?Armories of France?, please be kind to contact me since this is the answer to the Zionist and Arabic Nationalism Relic. Such a third model if it exists, will serve as a proof and blank test that the equilateral triangle and the square are true representations of Zionism and Arabic Nationalism.????

Quantitative Analysis and Exposition of Moslem Fundamentalism??

As we explained earlier, Arab nationalism and Moslem fundamentalism showed tension between them that exploded into clashes and blood shed in many cases. Those two entities follow therefore an inverse relationship of the form Y=1/X to simplify the picture. X is considered the strength of Moslem fundamentalism, whereby Y is the strength of Arab nationalism.??

Hence, if Moslem fundamentalism is week, Arab nationalism is strong in a given country and vice versa. An example to that is the case of Arab nationalism in Syria. Moslem fundamentalism or X is weakened by Al baath Arab nationalism or Y under President Assad ruling mainly during the 1982 Hamah Moslem brothers rising. Such an oppression was however brutal. Another example, is the Hamas fundamentalism rising in the Palestinian west bank against the weakened by corruption, the Arab nationalistic Fatah movement of the late President Arafat.??

In Egypt, at the time of President Nasser and till now, the Arab nationalist Nasseri movement is antagonist to the Moslem fundamentalist jamaa islamia. Most of them were either jailed or eliminated. The peak of that theory was the interference of the U.S.A with Irak internal affairs by striking harshly the Saddam Hussein baath party and weakening it to explode the Moslem fundamentalist movements both sunni and shiaa. The above picture becomes different when we consider the situation of Moslem fundamentalism versus Christian or Jewish fundamentalism.??

All three follow a linear relation ship of the type Y=Z=X. If the stengh of Moslem fundamentalism as Y increases, the same will be with the other two Z the Christian one and X the Jewish. Such a situation is clear in Lebanon or in the occupied Palestinian territories and Israel. Interaction of Arabic Nationalism with Zionism In this paragraph, I will comment on the balancing situation that must prevail between Arabic nationalism and Zionism to reach a stable Middle East. I will resort to the two geometric models of the square and triangle that i have previously exposed.??

In the case whereby some Arabic countries reached the situation of distorted Arabic nationalism square with religious fundamentalism resulting, then the equation X=Y=Z would dominate on Y=1/X, giving rise to enhanced Moslem, Christian and Jewish fundamentalism that will shift the centroid of the Zionist triangle towards the Jewish apex, resulting in the destabilization of the Zionist state and as we exposed before, would turn it down as it happened post King David and Salomon era. In consequence, any foreign power that unconsciously strikes the Arab nationalist system, will on the long run contribute to the disappearance of the state of Israel.??

Conclusion??

From the above analysis, we deduce that to maintain a stable Middle East, we should strengthen the Arab Nationalist regimes and at the same time prevent their destabilization by maintaining a state of equilibrium among their four poles of power.??

The same is true with Zionism that should be enhanced by maintaining equilibrium among its three poles of power. This task should be carried by the political regimes of those countries and controlled also by wise foreign powerful countries and the United Nations. All the Israeli political attitudes to that date have permitted us to deduce that the Jewish State is more prone to survive with adjacent Arab Nationalistic countries rather than Moslem fundamentalist ones.??Israel concluded a successful peace process with Egypt which is an Arabic nationalist country, with Jordan a Monarchy, and is capable to deal better with the Fatah rather than Hamas. In addition, the Syrian-Israeli front is quite since 1973 and, some form of peace discussions that may lead to an agreement are on the horizon. Following what is occurring in this multi-ethnic Iraki country with diversity in religion fractions and sects, we can interpret this geometric model of Zionist triangle versus the Arab nationalist square as the secret of the Iraki Pandora! I am afraid of the repetition of this sad Iraki experience onto the Lebanese and Syrian scenes, and more and more onto the Israeli-Palestinian one.??

My mathematical modeling approach to political science and mainly to that of the Middle East appears as a pioneering project. I invite the readers of this article to go to a nearby bookstore to check books about the Middle East on the shelves or to open some books from their home library and to glance on their content and methods of analysis and approach then on the content and method of analysis of mine.??I am sure that you will conclude that the Middle Eastern deserts whether those of Negev in Israel or the other deserts in the eastern or western parts of the Arabic continent are flourishing in my paper.??

In addition, I invite all scientific professionals from areas as mathematics, statistics, physics or engineering to follow my way in putting all their technical and scientific skills in the analysis of social or political problems. In this manner, we can quantify the political situation with numbers and weight values and judge better our solution to problems present on the political scene. We can then say we are sure by such and such percentage that our political decision to invade a country, or promote it?s development ,or amend it?s regime will bring us to such and such percentage of success or failure.????

REFERENCES????

1.Arab Nationalism by Bassam Tibi, Gutenberg University, Germany, 1970??2.The Jewish State by Yoram Hazony, Shalom Center, Israel, 2000.??

3.Jijad by Gilles Keppel, 2004.??4.History of the Arabic People, by Albert Hourani, 1992.??

5.Universal History of Israel, Hebrew Publishing Co., 1936, U.S.A?? 6. Politicide by Baruch Kimerlings, 2001, Canada.??7. Islam by Karen Armstrong, 2002, U.S.A 8. Jews, God and History by Max Dimont, 2000?